000 AXNT20 KNHC 241158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N89W TO 26N91W TO 23N98W. GALE-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO 25N85W TO 19N91W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET...HIGHEST N OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO 02N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 02S33W AND 02N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 22W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 05W AND 26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 25N24W 21N32W 13N41W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ENCOMPASSING THE U.S.A. BETWEEN ITS EAST COAST AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N...AND THEN IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N83W AND 25N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR...NONE. IFR...NONE. MVFR...KVQT...KMDJ...KIPN...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES CHENNAULT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN LAFAYETTE...GALLIANO...BOOTHVILLE...BATON ROUGE...AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT ICAO STATION K7NO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT AND BILOXI. ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT. FLORIDA...MVFR IN MARY ESTHER AND CRESTVIEW...AT THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE. IFR IN PERRY. RAIN AND THUNDER IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA. PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA WERE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AFTER A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF RAIN. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR 1400 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD...AND END UP ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WIND FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 125 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...PUSHING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER STAYS NEAR 16N70W FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO...BECOMING WESTERLY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF SO OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N61W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT ALSO AN INVERTED TROUGH IN HAITI DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W 28N68W 23N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N75W AT THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 57W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N40W AND 08N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N69W TO 25N74W...TO 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT