000 AXNT20 KNHC 231723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TODAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING THEN SHIFT E THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 7W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 23/1200 UTC REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N95.5W INTO THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF CORPUS CHRISTI THEN BACK INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-96W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER ALL BUT THE NW GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVER THE W AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM S/CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT AND FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY ON WED THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 66W-70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR PULSES OF STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED NIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY EARLY THU EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE FRI. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE E COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BRING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N56W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 47W N OF 18N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 26N58W 24N66W TO JUST N OF E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH WED AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND TRACKS NE TO WELL OUT OF THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD REACHING FROM 32N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW