000 AXNT20 KNHC 231145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 26N91W TO 23N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 01N20W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 07W AND 15W...FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TOWARD THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS NOW...ALONG 100W. CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COVER THE AREA FROM 92W IN LOUISIANA AND 99W IN TEXAS...AND IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR...KVBS...KMIS...AND KDLP. IFR...KBBF AND KXIH. MVFR...KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGRY... KEIR...AND KMDJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION...ALICE...AND IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN SUGARLAND... AND FROM PEARLAND...THROUGH THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. LIFR IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW IBERIA. LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. LIFR IN BATON ROUGE...TO THE NORTHERN SHORE AREA OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IFR TO MVFR AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT. IFR IN BILOXI DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. LIFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR AT THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. IFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...RAIN FROM MILTON TO THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN CRESTVIEW. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN MARY ESTHER DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT DRIZZLE IN VALPARAISO. LIFR IN MARIANNA. LIFR TO IFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND AT THE ST.PETE- CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...1800 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE LINE FROM COLOMBIA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD...TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO A SPOT THAT IS CLOSE TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AGAIN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN CHANGES FOR DAY TWO. THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS AND IT LEAVES ONLY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N62W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N49W 15N50W 13N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 29N50W 24N60W TO 21N66W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W...BEYOND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N24W...TO 27N36W TO 16N51W AND 08N53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT