000 AXNT20 KNHC 230605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 36-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 97W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF THE THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN THE EASTERN PART OF AGADIR...AND IN THE CANARIAS BETWEEN THE ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 08N18W AND 02N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N19W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 03S32W 02S39W AND 03S42W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 13W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 14W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 101W/102W SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEYOND THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS NOW...ALONG 100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KEMK...KGUL...KGHB...KGRY...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN FALFURRIAS. IFR IN ALICE. MVFR IN ROBSTOWN. IFR IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN ROCKPORT. IFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS. MVFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND GALVESTON. IFR IN HUNTSVILLE. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. IFR IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...IFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT. LIFR IN LAFAYETTE...NEW IBERIA...AND PATTERSON. MVFR IN GALLIANO. MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE. LIFR TO IFR FROM LEFT TO RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...LIGHT RAIN IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR AND RAIN IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA... RAIN/LIGHT RAIN FROM MILTON TO THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IN CRESTVIEW. LIGHT RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 23/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA AT 23/0000 UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/ LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE LINE FROM COLOMBIA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD...TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO A SPOT THAT IS CLOSE TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AGAIN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN CHANGES FOR DAY TWO. THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS AND IT LEAVES ONLY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N62W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N49W 15N50W 13N55W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N43W TO 28N50W 23N60W TO 22N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 480 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N49W 22N63W 19N67W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N68W...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N22W...TO 32N29W TO 23N45W TO 13N40W AND 05N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT