000 AXNT20 KNHC 222333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTENSIFYING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 06N11W CONTINUING SW TO 00N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 00N21W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N-07S AND W OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO 29N91W WITH CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY N OF 26N. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING WINDS AND SEAS AND SUPPORTING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION WHERE A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION BY EARLY THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL N ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W SW TO 23N60W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING SW INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 44W-53W. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS EARLY THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA