000 AXNT20 KNHC 221801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NE CONUS EARLY THU. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS EARLY WED MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 06N10W CONTINUING SW TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S37W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S TO 01N BETWEEN 20W AND 29W AND FROM 03S TO 07S W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER N CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 36N47W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE BASIN ALOFT AND ALONG WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER S OF 27N. N OF 27N...A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 29N83W TO 24N96W. DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED N OF THIS LINE...COINCIDING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. SURFACE VISIBILITY IN THIS REGION MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES...VESSELS/BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. GENTLE TO RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN TUE EVENING REACHING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TUE MORNING. GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NW GULF EARLY WED MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY BASIN-WIDE...THE EXCEPTION BEING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AS SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUES WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THU MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W SW TO 23N61W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THU WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS EARLY THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS