000 AXNT20 KNHC 221204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W AND 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N17W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 34W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY FROM 30W WESTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND ALREADY...ALONG 101W/102W NOW. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR...KGVX AND KXIH. IFR...KGLS. MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGRY...KEIR...KMIS... AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN HARLINGEN AND WESLACO. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IFR/MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE. MVFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS...IFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN SUGARLAND. IFR AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON. LIGHT RAIN AND IFR IN TOMBALL. IFR AND HEAVY RAIN IN HUNTSVILLE. MVFR AT LEAST ELSEWHERE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA... IN NEW IBERIA...AND AT THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE AIRPORT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA... IFR FROM THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT TO GULF SHORES. LIFR IN THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MILTON TO PENSACOLA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG...AND IN CRESTVIEW AND IN VALPARAISO. IFR IN MARY ESTHER AND IN DESTIN. LIFR IN MARIANNA...APALACHICOLA...TALLAHASSEE...AND IN PERRY. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA...AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW...NORTHWESTERLY MOVING FROM CUBA TOWARD JAMAICA...SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM 74W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST- TO-EAST WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY MOVE WESTWARD...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING...1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING...1400 FEET. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST IS FOR AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO PUERTO RICO... AND TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 15N67W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N58W TO 23N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 23N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N50W 22N60W...CURVING TO 21N64W...TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 31N44W 26N50W... AND FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...IN GENERAL...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N09W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N29W AND 13N37W. THE 34N09W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH THAT ARE FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N76W...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 22N38W TO 10N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT