000
AXNT20 KNHC 212334
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERIA AND ENTERS
THE E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 05N08W TO 00N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 00N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA
EXTENDS ITS AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COVERING
THE GULF WATERS ALONG WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT
TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. STRONG TO
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF NICARAGUA
FROM 16N82W TO 12N83W WITH A FEW SHOWERS PREVAILING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE NE...A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING THE
EASTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N66W. AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-74W WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PREVAIL.

HISPANIOLA...                              

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST E OF PUERTO RICO MAY BRING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N55W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 32N43W TO 27N48W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT
TO 22N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N61W TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1027 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
38N25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE W ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA