000 AXNT20 KNHC 211802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AS A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS S ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E-NE THIS EVENING AND THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN WILL RELAX...THUS DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW GALE-FORCE. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERIA AND ENTERS THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N08W CONTINUING TO 0N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 0N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05S TO 02N BETWEEN W OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW BASIN-WIDE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED...COINCIDING WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. SURFACE VISIBILITY IN THIS REGION MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES...VESSELS/BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN TUE EVENING REACHING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. NEAR ZONAL NW WINDS ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ELSEWHERE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN...PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 20N62W TO 16N64W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY BRING SHOWERS TO PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N81W TO 11N82W WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS AXIS. EXCEPT FOR THE GALE WARNING AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF PUERTO RICO MAY BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WHEN ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W SW TO 26N49W WHERE IT STALLS TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SW OF THE FRONT...JUST E OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N62W TO 15N64W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT NE TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS