000 AXNT20 KNHC 211141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT 21/1800 UTC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1.5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO NW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE SE GULF THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TEXAS/NE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TODAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE TEXAS EARLY TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TUE NIGHT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF AND OUT OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL NW WINDS ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ELSEWHERE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 17N64W. LINGERING MOISTURE AIDED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N64W TO 15N82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E LATER TODAY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY MON. HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE S COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD BRING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W TO 19N43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N53W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 23N55W 23N59W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE FRONT HAS BEGUN TO STALL AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT NE TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE CONUS WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW