000 AXNT20 KNHC 210533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 21/0600 UTC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED W OF BERMUDA COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 8W-13W AND FROM 1.5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO NW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST W OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TEXAS/NE MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE TEXAS EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TUE NIGHT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE WED. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL NW WINDS ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ELSEWHERE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 15N65W. LINGERING MOISTURE AIDED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W ALONG 15N71W TO 16N80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. STRONG WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT. WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE S AND E COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD BRING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N52W TO 17N44W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W TO 23N55W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N59W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE W ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN WILL SHIFT E TUE AND WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS WED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW