000
AXNT20 KNHC 201715
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS PULSING. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 20/1800 UTC. IT IS FORECAST TO RESUME 
TO GALE ON 21/0600 UTC AND MAINTAIN GALE UNTIL 21/1800 UTC.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 01N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S20W TO 01S40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05S BETWEEN 20W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO ALONG 100W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A GALE IS PULSING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N61W
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. S OF FRONT TRADEWINDS HAVE RESUMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N HISPANIOLA...ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...
AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE NE OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GALE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PULSE. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREDOMINATELY S
OF THE ISLAND DUE TO TRADEWIND FLOW.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N51W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 20N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A 1039 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N26W. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N WESTERN
SAHARA NEAR 27N12W. THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO CENTERS ARE PRODUCING 25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 25N E OF 25W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO 30N46W WITH CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA