000 AXNT20 KNHC 201146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL 20/1200 UTC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 13W-21W AND FROM 1N-5N W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NE MEXICO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W. THIS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-71W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. STRONG WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE SUN AND MON NIGHTS. HISPANIOLA... THE FRONT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING SAT NIGHT/SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N72W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 58W TO 16N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W ALONG 25N58W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N-23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE N PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E WHILE THE S PORTION WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRONT 22N58W TO TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE W ATLC THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW