000 AXNT20 KNHC 200548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 21/0600 UTC FOR 12 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA COVERING THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N32W 1N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NE MEXICO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG BEING REPORTED IN THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN WHEN IT WILL SHIFT FURTHER E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 17N67W. THIS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA E OF 73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. STRONG WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... THE FRONT OVER PUERTO RICO IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING SAT NIGHT/SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N74W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N60W TO A BASE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W ALONG 24N60W TO OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-26N AND WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING 32N49W ALONG 22N59W TO PUERTO RICO SAT AFTERNOON THEN FROM 32N43W 24N52W 22N58W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW