000 AXNT20 KNHC 191759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS PULSING. THE GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TWO BRIEF EVENING PERIODS NAMELY BETWEEN 19/1800 UTC AND 20/0000 UTC... AND BETWEEN 20/1800 UTC AND 21/0000 UTC...WHEN 30 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-20W...FROM 01N- 04N BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SE TO S RETURN SURFACE FLOW. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 95W WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO 31N74W. FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE E TO SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS PULSING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 17N70W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-66W. NE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN ...WHILE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GALE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PULSE. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREDOMINATELY S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO TRADEWIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N31W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 30N10W. THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO CENTERS ARE PRODUCING NEAR GALE NE WINDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 25N E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA