000 AXNT20 KNHC 191158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT... NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE PRESENT FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CAPE VERDE ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO 04N23W...03N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 01S19W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 01N24W AND 01N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 01S BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 01N TO 01S BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KGUL...KGBK... KVQT...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS. THE FOLLOWING STATIONS WERE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE PAST...AND THE CONDITIONS ONLY CHANGED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO...KGLS...KVAF...KHQI...KEMK...KATP...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. IFR/MVFR IN HARLINGEN. MCALLEN AND EDINBURG HAVE REPORTED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...AND RECENTLY NO CEILINGS. LIFR IN ROBSTOWN. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS AND IN KINGSVILLE. IFR IN ALICE. IFR IN VICTORIA. MVFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR/VFR IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR/VFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN NEW IBERIA AND IN PATTERSON. LIFR IN GALLIANO. MVFR IN BATON ROUGE. LIFR AT THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT AND IN SLIDELL. IFR/LIFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN PASCAGOULA. FLORIDA...LIFR IN APALACHICOLA. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 58W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N65W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N66W 26N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N59W TO 20N64W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.88 IN BERMUDA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.37 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...MVFR WITH VISIBILITY. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...MVFR CEILING...1600 FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR VISIBILITY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. WEST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHWEST WIND TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THEN FROM THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO... TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 25N15W...TO 20N23W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA TO 20N16W AND 18N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT