000 AXNT20 KNHC 190605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...THE 30-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET...FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 42 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...MADEIRA AND CANARIAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA... METEOR...AND CAPE VERDE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO 03N20W...03N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 01S33W... REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 07N12W TO 04N25W 02N33W 02N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KEMK...KHQI... KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...AND KVOA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT LAVACA AND BAY CITY/ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON...AND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N66W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N59W 27N60W 22N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.88 IN BERMUDA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.37 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...IN THE SURFACE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...MVFR AT 19/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 19/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN...MVFR CEILING. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR CEILING. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. WEST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHWEST WIND TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THEN FROM THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N10W TO 25N15W 20N26W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 19N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT