000 AXNT20 KNHC 181712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE OF GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE. METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED GALES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NAMELY MADEIRA...CASA BLANCA...AND METEOR. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/ PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N83W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. FAR WEATHER IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE. THE GULF WILL HAVE 10-20 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N76W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. MOST SHOWERS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED ALONG THE FRONT. 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND S OF HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INCLUDE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE N OF THE ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE S OF THE ISLAND IN TRADEWIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA AT 20N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N77W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONG 1050 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N34W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N11W TO 25N20W TO 25N30W TO 30N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. AREAS OF GALE TO NEAR GALE ARE N OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E INTO WEST AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA