000 AXNT20 KNHC 180605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CANARIAS AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN ALL THE INDIVIDUAL AREAS THAT ARE LISTED ON THE MAP FROM 15N TO 35N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 03S25W AND 06S27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KHHV AND KGHB. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIFR IN FALFURRIAS. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION. MVFR IN ALICE. IFR IN VICTORIA. MVFR IN BAY CITY BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN AND WESLACO. IFR IN PORT ISABEL AND EDINBURG. MVFR IN MCALLEN. LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO ALICE AND THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN PERRY...IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AND AT THE ST.PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IFR AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...AND IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA...IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN NAPLES. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W...TO 23N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO 20N80W...AND 20N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N63W 26N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.06 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SUFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CLOUD CEILING...4000 FEET...AT 18/0200 UTC OBSERVATION. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...4000 FEET. SANTO DOMINGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1400 FEET. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND...WEST WIND...AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FOR DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTOTHE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD. . THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... TO 24N81W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N81W TO 22N87W AND 22N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 28N69W TO 25N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 400 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 27N82W TO 22N91W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N48W TO 21N44W TO 10N33W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N40W AND 19N37W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N59W TO 23N64W... TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N67W-TO-23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT