000
AXNT20 KNHC 172324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S42W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 02N BETWEEN 22W-40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N88W
WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WITH
THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 18N90W TO
21N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 78W. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FAR W PORTION OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 16N BETWEEN
65W-78W SUPPORTED BY A PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURES THAT DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL STALL ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR
A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT MOVES E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO
CENTRAL CUBA AT 32N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
AND E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-72W. THE BASE OF
A VERY LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1049 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N39W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 15N BETWEEN 38W-46W.
EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA