000
AXNT20 KNHC 171740
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01N30W TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-33W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO S TEXAS. THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT
OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO
MOVE NE WITH RIDGE AXIS TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE GULF WILL HAVE
10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 20N88W TO 18N91W. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY N OF FRONT
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS S OF E CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INCLUDE PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND ALONG THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE N OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE S OF THE ISLAND
IN TRADEWIND FLOW.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA
AT 22N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE BASE OF A VERY LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 10W-60W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N67W TO W CUBA WITH
CONVECTION TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA