000 AXNT20 KNHC 170548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN ALL THE AREAS THAT ARE LISTED FROM 15N TO 35N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W AND 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N17W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 19W...REACHING 03S27W... TO 03S35W...TO 04S41W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 09N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE U.S.A. FROM 92W...IOWA/MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...ETC...EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W AND 22N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N81W TO 25N90W TO 22N98W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N90W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KGHB...KATP...AND KDLP. KHHV WAS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS...UNTIL THE LAST OBSERVATION. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN BROWNSVILLE...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIFR IN PORT LAVACA. PALACIOS WAS REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONDITIONS IMPROVED. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. IFR IN SARASOTA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO... LIGHT RAIN. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WEST WIND FLOW AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH EVENTUALLY SETTLES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AT THE END OF DAY ONE. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N62W 21N68W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT