000 AXNT20 KNHC 161156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 15 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED... CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...THREAT OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR GALE TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM 35W EASTWARD. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 05N16W AND 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N18W...TO 02N22W AND 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 13N15W TO 07N17W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM FROM 03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 02W AND 08W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...AND FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO 27N90W TO 26N96W. A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 86W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN PARTS OF FLORIDA...FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N66W 22N77W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KGRY...AND KIPN. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN ALSO IN WESLACO. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS. LIFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE AND PATTERSON. MVFR IN AMELIA/LAKE PALO. LIFR IN GALLIANO...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT. LIFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN MOBILE AND GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARY ESTHER. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA...TALLAHASSEE...AND PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. PUNTA GORDA... LIGHT RAIN. THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. NAPLES...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE IN THE OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. MVFR AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION DURING THE OBSERVATIONS OF THE LAST FEW HOURS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA... TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO... LIGHT RAIN. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. A COL POINT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE NORTHEASTERN PART WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE MIDDLE OF DAY TWO. THE COL POINT EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO FORM ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N50W TO 17N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 54W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N50W AND 26N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N56W TO 25N64W 25N68W AND 23N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 25N60W 22N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 21N53W 08N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N47W 23N70W STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT