000 AXNT20 KNHC 160554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA... THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. EXPECT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED... CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...AND CAP BLANC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN...CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND THEN IN IRVING...METEOR...AND MADEIRA LATER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 06N17W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W...TO 01N26W AND 01N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...AND CONTINUING TO 01S47W IN COASTAL BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W...AND FROM 01N TO 02N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W IN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KEHC...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIPN. KATP AND KVQT HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND VFR...WITH THE VISIBILITIES...DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN SLIDELL. IFR WITH RAIN AND THUNDER AT THE LAKEFRONT AIRPORT FOR NEW ORLEANS. MVFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN DESTIN AND CRESTVIEW...IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER...LIGHT RAIN IN PERRY. MVFR IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN IS FALLING AND/OR WAS FALLING EARLIER IN MANY PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD IN FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N68W...AND TO 19N69W IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 16/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 2000 FEET...AT 16/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. A COL POINT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE NORTHEASTERN PART WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE MIDDLE OF DAY TWO. THE COL POINT EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO FORM ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N53W TO 23N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N53W AND 24N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 56W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N46W 19N43W 14N42W...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO DISSIPATED. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 600 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 23N37W 10N40W 05N47W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N47W 24N60W STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT