000 AXNT20 KNHC 152344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO TO THE W ATLC EARLY TUE SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/2100 UTC IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE N GULF S TO SW SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 88W. A SQUALL LINE IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 27N91W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30.5N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 88W. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MOVE E OF AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE E GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N67W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUE. THIS GIVE THE ISLAND CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM N OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W ALONG 27N57W THEN WEAKENS ALONG 25N65W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N58W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E THAT IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 61W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED OVERNIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE AND SWEEP ACROSS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW