000 AXNT20 KNHC 151753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WAS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL 15/1500 UTC. NEAR GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N W OF 77W IN E TO SE FLOW WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING A GALE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...CANARIAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 03W-13W...AND FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SE TO S RETURN FLOW WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE E GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...NE CUBA...COSTA RICA...N NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MORE PREVALENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N53W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N61W TO PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N47W. A GALE IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAHAMAS TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SE SURFACE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA