000 AXNT20 KNHC 151159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST-TO- SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED... CANARIAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHEASTERLY NEAR... LOCALLY GALE IN...IRVING...AGADIR...TARFAYA...CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO 03N21W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...AND CONTINUING TO 01S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 04N04W 04N13W... AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 03N17W 01N25W 01N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 50W 50W...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N90W 27N93W 25N97W...IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AWAY FROM THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR...KBBF...KGHB...AND KEIR. MVFR...KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KATP...AND KMIS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND VICTORIA. MVFR IN PALACIOS. MVFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR COVERS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES TO HUNTSVILLE. MVFR IN GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE NEAR THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT...NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THAT IS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 22N69W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 24N65W 20N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N55W 27N66W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N59W 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ABOUT 220 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 15/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1300 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. WEST-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA... BRINGING SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO PUERTO RICO FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N81W...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N46W 19N43W 14N42W...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO DISSIPATED. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 600 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W. A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT