000 AXNT20 KNHC 142337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING THEN BRIEFLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N17W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 26N90W. DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA GIVING THE NW GULF S TO SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 88W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING SWEEPING ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MOVE E OF AREA TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER HISPANIOLA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF SAINT LUCIA TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND. THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK GIVING THE ISLAND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 26N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N59W ALONG 25N65W TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT AND MON AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS TUE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER NW WATERS TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW