000
AXNT20 KNHC 141737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
COLOMBIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NW CUBA AND ENTERS THE BASIN AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 22N84W TO 23N88W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
THAT POINT TO 29N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W
CARIBBEAN. THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW CUBA AT THIS TIME. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BUILDING ACROSS THIS AREA SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY W OF 77W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WESTERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND
E OF 68W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS W HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N60W TO 23N80W. TO THE
E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N58W TO 21N71W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION N
OF 25N. TO THE SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N41W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 34W-40W. A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N28W EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA