000 AXNT20 KNHC 130551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N37W TO 03S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 15W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N89W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS TO FORT MYERS...FLORIDA. LIGHT WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS SURROUND THE RIDGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE S AND E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 17N79W TO NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER W ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 70W OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... MOVING SE...ARE APPROACHING 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N53W TO 25N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N32W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N30W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 70W WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N67W TO S FL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO