000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N85W TO
20N75W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...W
HISPANIOLA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. 

HISPANIOLA...                                          

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WHILE
WEAKENING. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N75W
TO 32N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONT. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E
WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA