000 AXNT20 KNHC 050557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N THROUGH 05/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W ALONG 2N26W 1N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR W OF 29W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS NEAR 27N82W TO OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 25N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THEN RETURN N SAT AND PUSH BACK S THROUGH THE AREA W OF 85W SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. A LOW/SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE W FRI AND WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON THEN OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF THE ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 21N61W CONTINUING S TO 15N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N54W TO 12N58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO W CUBA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. A SURFACE LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SEND A NEW COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING THEN TO 32N65W TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER C/CENTRAL ATLC MON. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT INTO MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW