000 AXNT20 KNHC 042340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THESE WINDS ARE INDUCED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 21N90W TO 16N92W. THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 24N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 24N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N60W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE W APPROACHING THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 28N AND W OF 79W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO THE LOW TO 15N60W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N48W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA