000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF N AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N36W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO 25N86W...THEN ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF N AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN N ATLC EXTENDS TO THE SE GULF AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TO THE NE OF PUERTO RICO...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 20N59W EXTENDS SW AND COVERS THE REMAINDER EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW IN THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW JUST TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE N TO NE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COVER THE NW WATERS W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A 1011 MB LOW OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO APPROACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BY FRI MORNING AND THEN OVER HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A 1011 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N59W. THE LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SW TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THIS REGION FRIDAY. THEN WILL MOVE W TO OVER HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS