000 AXNT20 KNHC 041146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SW GULF LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N20W ALONG 2N26W 2N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 25N90W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING E TOWARD THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 80W-85W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 22N57W CONTINUING S ALONG 18N56W THEN W TO 16N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 54W-61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 46W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT W THROUGH FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN DISSIPATES OVER HAITI FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW