000 AXNT20 KNHC 040554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N19W ALONG 2N27W 1N35W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 23W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N88W 25N91W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THAT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH ON THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 21N93W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 79W TO OVER W CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 23N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N56W CONTINUING S TO 16N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 13N55W TO 15N52W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO 20N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NE OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN IT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW