000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE- FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW BASIN THU MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N21W 01N36W TO 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE N TO NE CONUS THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 994 MB LOW NEAR 44N82W...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W AND CONTINUING ALONG 25N92W TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...COINCIDING WITH IFR IMAGERY MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF FOG. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS THU. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS PROVIDING STABLE/FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AS INDICATED BY LATEST SCAT DATA...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDES STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N62W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO 60W. TO THE EAST...A NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUPPORT A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N55W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N58W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NW OF PORTUGAL. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC EARLY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR