000 AXNT20 KNHC 031126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 29N83W ALONG 22N91W TO 19N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N17W ALONG 4N23W 3N31W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ON THU THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-85W INCLUDING SW HAITI AND N JAMAICA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF BELIZE FRI NIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SW HAITI. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY GIVING THE ISLAND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUING N TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH JUST E OF MAINE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 56W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-58W. BASED ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N56W ALONG 26N57W 25N60W TO 20N63W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 19N53W TO 25N52W. DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 45W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT E TO 55W TONIGHT THEN RETREAT NW PASSING 65W FRI AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW