000 AXNT20 KNHC 030547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W ALONG 22N92W TO 18.5N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N15W ALONG 2N21W 3N32W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16N-19N AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED DUE TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 25N95W CONTINUING S INTO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE THE GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N75W THEN ALONG 18N81W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 14N-20N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO N/CENTRAL HONDURAS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FRI THROUGH SAT. THE 1016 MB LOW N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE THEN BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE THU WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER HAITI TONIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE WED GIVING THE ISLAND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA TO ACROSS FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUING N TO OVER CANADA. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 20N66W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO 23N55W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-59W. DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH N- NE OF THE AZORES. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N63W TO W/CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING. THE 1016 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TODAY AND BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI INTO THE SW ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS ON SUN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CONUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW