000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N97W TO 23N98W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. AS THE FRONT
MOVES E AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF MAINLY S OF 21N AND W 92W BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ONE
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR US SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS W LOUISIANA. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N94W TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 23N98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N97W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
FRONT AFFECTING THE NW GULF WATERS W OF 94W. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
FOG BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOW AND FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N
OF 14N. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES AFFECTING THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE N WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N64W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N73W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BETWEEN
50W-60W MAINLY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N62W
TO 33N50W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
39N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA