000
AXNT20 KNHC 021801
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N18W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF A
LINE FROM 04N50W TO 05N35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR US SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING OFF THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. AS OF 1500
UTC THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM 29N95W TO JUST NW OF A 1005 MB LOW
NEAR 23N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N94W TO
THE SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FL W COAST N OF
25N. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. ON WED MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR MOBILE...ALABAMA TO THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE SW GULF. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN
240 NM OF THE GULF COAST E OF 90W.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 14N. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. LITTLE
CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE WIND
FLOW CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FORM THE N WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N74W. A 1016 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
31N56W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 21N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 61W SUPPORTS THE LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 26N48W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. YET ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
EAST...EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N36W TO
25N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO