000 AXNT20 KNHC 021110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N17W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO ALONG 80W COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MOVES E INTO THE NW GULF WITH S TO SE SURFACE FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 89W INCLUDING THE TEXAS COAST...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING SE OF THE AREA FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN N OF 13N. THE 1016 MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TODAY DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW WILL BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THU WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT WESTWARD THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND REMAIN N OF 19N SHIFTS E ACROSS CUBA. ...HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO GENERATE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE 1016 MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR WED EVENING THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 32N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 31N51W 28N56W TO 29N61W TO 27N64W. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 23N69W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N74W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO 25N62W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 26N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N48W TO 30N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING. THE 1016 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE AND WED DRAGGING THE SURFACE TROUGH S TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW