000 AXNT20 KNHC 020603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 3N E OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD COVERED THE E GULF IS RETREATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER S TO SE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 89W. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE EVENING THEN FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING AND FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING BEFORE REACHING FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA THU MORNING AND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO W TIP OF CUBA THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N E OF 82W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE 1016 MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THU WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE 1016 MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR WED EVENING THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND LATER ON FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 28N53W TO 28N61W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N69W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO 26N67W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 55W-63W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 26N46W GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY THU THEN EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA THU EVENING THEN FROM 32N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO W CUBA FRI MORNING. THE 1016 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE AND WED DRAGGING THE SURFACE TROUGH S TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW