000
AXNT20 KNHC 012321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
SW GULF S OF 29N AND W OF 94W. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N12W TO 02N25W TO 01N38W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION S
OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 30W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 02S38W TO 00N49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE S
TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE NW GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PROXIMITY
OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF HISPANIOLA
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-77W. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE
OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC FROM 25N80W TO 30N78W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE W
ENDING NEAR 25N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE
LOW TO 26N58W TO 32N45W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OBSERVED FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 57W-71W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTED A PAIR OF TROUGHS THAT EXTEND ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC...THE FIRST WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N35W TO 23N33W...WHILE
THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 07N39W TO 15N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E. THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL
DISSIPATE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA