000
AXNT20 KNHC 011732
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
03N08W TO 04N20W TO 02N35W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR
THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION S OF 02N W OF 35W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG THE S AMERICA COAST. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FROM A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. LIGHT
TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS NEAR THE MEXICO COAST FROM 27N98W TO 20N97W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N
E OF 84W. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SE GULF LATER TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MIDDAY TUE WITH SHOWERS. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF
THE TRADE WIND FLOW AFFECTING WATERS MAINLY N OF A LINE FROM
13N60W TO 16N80W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 25N60W TO 23N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND
52W. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 56W AND THE FLORIDA E COAST. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 23N32W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N29W TO 07N39W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AND WESTWARD TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 70W THROUGH TUE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO