000 AXNT20 KNHC 311201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 04N TO 04N01W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N01W TO 03N10W...TO 03N20W AND 02N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 18W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N14W 16N36W 06N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 25N93W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR...KBBF. MVFR...KBQX. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL AND WESLACO. IFR IN FALFURRIAS. MVFR IN ALICE. MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS...AND FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN VALPARAISO. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W 23N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N66W TO 21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W...AND CURVING TO EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 25N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N50W 22N72W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N TO 23N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN BERMUDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FOG IS BEING REPORTED. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR EACH DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE CURRENT TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN WESTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EAST-TO- NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N31W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N33W...TO 26N31W...TO 20N36W 12N39W AND 08N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 25N93W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N85W TO WESTERN HONDURAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W...TO 26N45W 22N55W...AND TO 15N60W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT