000 AXNT20 KNHC 310554 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 04N TO 03N05W AND 04N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N12W TO 05N20W...02N33W 02N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD FROM 40WEASTWARD...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N17W 10N40W 04N51W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 25N17W 04N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 26N92W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR...KBBF. MVFR...KBQX...KGVX...AND KVOA. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN MILTON AFTER BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N60W 23N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N66W TO 21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W...AND CURVING TO EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 26N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN BERMUDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N86W...JAMAICA...18N69W...15N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND EAST-TO- SOUTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 31/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AT 31/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR EACH DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE CURRENT TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN WESTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EAST-TO- NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N31W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N31W...TO 26N31W...TO 17N38W AND 08N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 26N92W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N85W TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...TO 25N48W 21N60W...AND TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT