000 AXNT20 KNHC 310003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRAND LARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN AGADIR INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE S COAST OF MOROCCO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 01N31W TO 01N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NW ATLC WATERS NEAR 32N72W COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT PROVIDES LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 93W WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH WINDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS INTO THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE OVER ATLC WATERS AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...SE WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S TO A BASE NEAR 30N AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE EASTERNMOST BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 18N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THUS SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE FAR NW BASIN AND THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE AHEAD OF FRONT EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW BASIN SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IN SOME INSTANCES HAZE AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADES MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W COVERS MOST OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S TO A BASE NEAR 30N AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W SW TO 24N62W WHERE IT STALLS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 28N70W WHERE IT STALLS NW TO 30N76W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MERGE THE LEADING FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATER WHERE IT WILL STALL MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS