000 AXNT20 KNHC 301141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N63W TO 21N74W. EXPECT SOUTH- TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN...AGADIR. THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...DECREASING LATER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 01N04E...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 05W... TO 03N13W 01N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 01S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KBBF AND KGVX. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN BAY CITY AFTER LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. LIFR IN SUGARLAND. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AFTER LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS OR SO. THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION IS REPORTING NO CEILING...AFTER IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST FOUR HOURS. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN BILOXI AND PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR AT THE DOWNTOWN MOBILE AIRPORT. MVFR AT THE GULF SHORES AIRPORT. FLORIDA...IFR AT THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION. NO CEILING NOW IN MILTON AFTER LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. MVFR IN DESTIN. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N65W 24N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N77W JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 19N77W...CURVING TO 17N81W...AND TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 26N60W 20N72W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N72W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 17N60W TO 17N70W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N53W...TO THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SURROUND HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 26N27W...20N34W 16N42W...AND 05N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W...TO 25N53W...TO THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT