000 AXNT20 KNHC 300604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N66W TO 21N75W. EXPECT SOUTH- TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N58W TO 28N64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN...AGADIR. THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR WILL BE DECREASING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N08W 03N14W 02N21W 03N29W 02N35W 03N42W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W... TO 02S52W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE...FROM 10W EASTWARD...FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N89W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS EVERYWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA... MVFR AT THE DOWNTOWN MOBILE AIRPORT. FLORIDA...IFR AT THE TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR PANAMA CITY. MVFR IN PERRY. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES 30N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 30N68W 27N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N79W JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 18N79W...AND IT CURVES TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 330 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 28N60W 20N70W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PANAMERICANTEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N62W TO 15N72W 15N78W...TO NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N50W...23N57W...TO THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SURROUND HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 31N06W...TO A 27N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N31W...TO A 19N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N40W AND 05N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO26N50W...23N57W...TO THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT ISTO THE EAST OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT